External validation of the prognostic index in acute paraquat poisoning

Some studies have evaluated the prognostic indicators associated with acute paraquat (PQ) poisoning. In this study, we externally validated the Yamaguchi index, which showed a good prognostic relevance in predicting the outcome of PQ poisoning.

A retrospective analysis of 297 patients was performed. The Yamaguchi index was calculated using the following equation: Eq1 = (K(+) × HCO3(-))/(Creatinine × 0.088)(mEq/L) against time from PQ ingestion (T). The patients were divided into three groups: group A: Eq1 > 1500 - 399 × log T, group B: 930 - 399 × log T < Eq1 ≤ 1500 - 399 × log T, and group C: Eq1 ≤ 930 - 399 × log T).

The overall mortality rate was 65.3% (194 of 297). The mortality rates of the three groups stratified by the Yamaguchi index were 7.1% (2 of 28), 22.4% (15 of 67), and 87.6% (177 of 202). The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve for predicting mortality from the external validation of the Yamaguchi index was 0.842 (95% confidence interval: 0.795-0.882).

The Yamaguchi index is a reliable prognostic factor and could be helpful in predicting mortality due to PQ poisoning.