Development of a prediction model and risk score for procedure-related complications in patients undergoing...

To propose a risk score predicting the potential occurrence of procedure-related complications in patients undergoing computed tomography (CT)-guided lung biopsy.

Institution review board approval was obtained. A total of 342 CT-guided lung biopsies were retrospectively evaluated taking into account procedure-related complications and associated risk factors, including patient gender and age, previous radiation therapy (RT) and/or chemotherapy (CHT), lesion size, depth and location, incomplete pulmonary fissures, associated diffuse lung diseases, previous pneumothorax (PNX), lung volumes, punctured fissures, thoracic access, needle size and operator experience. Complications were assessed on chest X-ray and/or CT scans. Stepwise logistic regression was used to identify risk factors, to evaluate their correlation with procedure-related complications and to calculate models of risk (MoRs).

PNX requiring chest tube placement occurred in 39 patients (11.4%), high-grade pulmonary parenchymal haemorrhage occurred in 62 patients (18.1%) and haemothorax occurred in 12 patients (3.5%). Risk factors increasing the incidence of complications were lesion size (P = 0.01), lesion depth (P = 0.01) and incomplete pulmonary fissures (P = 0.01); previous chemo-radiation therapy was correlated to a lower incidence of complications (P = 0.01). MoR for PNX was as follows: risk base line = 60%; age = +0.15%/year; punctured fissures = +20%; incomplete fissures = +9%; previous CHT/RT = -10%. MoR for parenchymal haemorrhage was as follows: risk base line = 20%, lesion depth = +0.8%/mm; age = +0.25%/year; incomplete fissures = +15%. MoR for haemothorax was as follows: risk base line = 1%; previous PNX = +20%; incomplete fissures = 7%; both previous PNX and incomplete fissures = +67%.

This study provides MoRs to predict the risk of complications in patients undergoing CT-guided percutaneous lung biopsies.