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Cognitive reflection vs. calculation in decision making.

Aleksandr Sinayev1, Ellen Peters1

  • 1Department of Psychology, The Ohio State University Columbus, OH, USA.

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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Numeric ability, not cognitive reflection, predicts better decision-making. This study reveals that strong numerical skills are key to making more normative choices across various financial and behavioral tasks.

Keywords:
Cognitive Reflection Testbiasesdual-system theoryfinancial outcomesindividual differencesnumeracy

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Area of Science:

  • Cognitive Psychology
  • Behavioral Economics
  • Decision Science

Background:

  • The Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT) is often used to assess decision-making, with high scores linked to overriding intuitive errors.
  • However, CRT performance also relies on numeric ability, raising questions about its precise measurement of cognitive reflection versus numeracy.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To disentangle the contributions of cognitive reflection and numeric ability to decision-making competence.
  • To determine whether numeric ability or the capacity to override intuition is the primary driver of normative decisions.

Main Methods:

  • Two studies administered the CRT and a numeracy scale, calculating both cognitive reflection and numeric ability.
  • Decision-making competence was assessed using normative choices, incentivized measures of impatience and risk aversion, and self-reported financial outcomes.

Main Results:

  • Numeric ability, whether measured by the CRT or a dedicated numeracy scale, significantly predicted more normative decisions.
  • Cognitive reflection, independent of numeric ability, did not show significant predictive power for decision-making competence.
  • These findings held true whether abilities were modeled or calculated using proportions.

Conclusions:

  • Numeric ability is a robust predictor of superior decision-making across diverse tasks and outcomes.
  • The predictive power of the CRT for decision performance is largely attributable to underlying numeric ability, not solely the ability to override intuition.
  • Relying solely on CRT correlations may overestimate the role of overriding intuitions in decision-making biases.