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Probability judgments under ambiguity and conflict.
1Research School of Psychology, The Australian National University Canberra, ACT, Australia.
This study explores how conflict and ambiguity, types of uncertainty, influence human judgment. New models are presented to assess subjective conflict and ambiguity, improving decision-making under uncertainty.
Area of Science:
- Cognitive Psychology
- Decision Science
- Risk Analysis
Background:
- Distinguishing between conflict and ambiguity as distinct sources of uncertainty is crucial for understanding judgment and decision-making.
- Existing research often treats these uncertainties separately, limiting a comprehensive understanding of their combined effects.
Purpose of the Study:
- To review advances in human judgment and decision-making under both ambiguity and conflict.
- To present and test novel models for assessing subjective conflict and ambiguity.
- To develop a framework for experienced information settings.
Main Methods:
- Review of recent advances in human judgment and decision-making research.
- Development of two types of testable models: estimate-pooling for probability estimates and subjective assessment models.
- Reanalysis of a multi-nation data-set for described information.
- Development of a new framework for experienced information settings.
Main Results:
- Two types of testable models for judgments under conflict and ambiguity were developed.
- A framework for testing these models in described-information settings was presented.
- A new framework for experienced-information settings yielded novel models for best estimates and perceived conflict.
Conclusions:
- Conflict and ambiguity are key factors influencing judgments and decision-making.
- The developed models and frameworks offer new approaches to understanding and quantifying uncertainty.
- Further research is needed to refine these models and explore their applications.

