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Conflictive Uncertainty: A Framework for Understanding the Aversion to Conflicting Information in Social Contexts
Guangyu Zhu1, Yiyun Shou1,2,3, Michael Smithson1
1School of Medicine and Psychology, The Australian National University, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia.
Personality & Social Psychology Bulletin
|November 21, 2025
Summary
Conflicting information, termed conflictive uncertainty, negatively impacts decision-making by reducing source credibility and increasing perceived uncertainty. Addressing credibility loss can mitigate these adverse effects on preferences.
Area of Science:
- Cognitive Psychology
- Decision Science
- Social Psychology
Background:
- Conflicting information poses a significant threat to emotional, cognitive, and behavioral stability.
- Understanding the psychological mechanisms behind these negative impacts is crucial for effective decision-making.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the negative effects of conflicting information using the framework of conflictive uncertainty.
- To examine the roles of source credibility and perceived uncertainty in mediating these effects.
Main Methods:
- Three experiments were conducted to test the conflictive uncertainty framework.
- Participants' source credibility ratings, perceived uncertainty, and preference strength were measured under different information conditions.
Main Results:
- Conflictive uncertainty led to lower source credibility and weaker preferences compared to ambiguity.
- Reduced source credibility and increased perceived uncertainty mediated the negative impact of conflicting information.
- Mitigating credibility loss lessened the adverse effects on preference strength.
Conclusions:
- Source credibility and perceived uncertainty are key factors in the detrimental effects of conflicting information on decision-making.
- The findings provide a nuanced understanding of how conflicting information influences judgment and choice.
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