[Simulation of Stipa purpurea distribution pattern on Tibetan Plateau based on MaxEnt model and GIS]

The impact of climate change on species distribution is a hot issue in biogeography research. This study utilized the constructive species Stipa purpurea as the research object, which was widely distributed in alpine meadow of the Tibetan Plateau, investigated its distribution in the Tibetan Plateau through the field survey and herbarium search, and used MaxEnt model to simulate its historical, current and future distribution trends to analyze its distribution pattern in each historical period and explore the cause of species distribution changes. Research results showed that diversity of Stipa species in alpine grassland of the Tibetan Plateau was high, its main distribution area was the hinterland of the Tibetan Plateau and areas along the Himalaya, and its distribution was strongly affected by precipitation of warmest quarter, precipitation of wettest quarter and annual precipitation. According to the distribution pattern of S. purpurea in the Last Glacial Maximum, and geographical and geological features of the Tibetan Plateau, this paper proposed that: North Tibet core area of South Qiangtang and Ali region of west Himalaya mountainous area were the core area of the potential distribution for S. purpurea, since these regions could provide more suitable habitats for S. purpurea than other regions and be the refugia where the current S. purpurea was migrated and differentiated from. The presence of refugia may contribute to the understanding of related issues of the alpine plants' origin and differentiation in the Tibetan Plateau.