Inconsistent Range Shifts within Species Highlight Idiosyncratic Responses to Climate Warming

Area of Science:

• Ecology
• Climate Change Biology
• Biogeography

Background:

• Climate change is altering species distributions globally.
• Warming temperatures are a primary driver of observed range shifts.
• Other environmental and biological factors can influence or reverse these shifts.

Purpose of the Study:

• To assess the consistency of species' range shifts across different geographic areas experiencing similar warming.
• To evaluate the relative importance of temperature versus other factors in driving species distribution changes.
• To understand if species-level responses to climate change are predictable.

Main Methods:

• Analyzed published studies documenting range shifts for species in multiple locations.
• Included data for 273 species across plants, birds, mammals, and marine invertebrates.
• Compared the direction and magnitude of range shifts for the same species under similar warming trends.

Main Results:

• 42-50% of species showed inconsistent range shift directions despite similar warming.
• This inconsistency highlights the influence of local abiotic and biotic factors.
• Species-level range shifts are less predictable than community-level responses.

Conclusions:

• While climate change drives range shifts, local conditions and species interactions significantly impact individual species' responses.
• The direct physiological effects of temperature may be superseded by other factors.
• Predicting individual species' responses to climate change remains challenging.