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Understanding Trends in Pertussis Incidence: An Agent-Based Model Approach
Erinn Sanstead1, Cynthia Kenyon1, Seth Rowley1
1Erinn Sanstead, Seth Rowley, Shalini Kulasingam, and Eva Enns are with the School of Public Health, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis. Erinn Sanstead, Cynthia Kenyon, Seth Rowley, Claudia Miller, and Kristen Ehresmann are with the Division of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Prevention, and Control, Minnesota Department of Health, St. Paul.
Pertussis (whooping cough) incidence is influenced by waning immunity from vaccines and lower detection rates in adults. Fluctuations in adult immunity also play a role in pertussis trends.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Infectious Disease Modeling
Background:
- Pertussis (whooping cough) incidence has shown recent age-related trends.
- Understanding factors influencing pertussis transmission is crucial for public health.
Purpose of the Study:
- To examine the impact of undetected infections, adult immunity, and waning vaccine-acquired immunity on pertussis incidence.
- To analyze age-related trends in pertussis within Dakota County, Minnesota.
Main Methods:
- Developed an agent-based model of pertussis transmission.
- Utilized case data from the Minnesota Department of Health.
- Calibrated model parameters to incidence data from 2004, 2008, and 2012 outbreaks.
Main Results:
- Vaccine-acquired immunity duration decreased from 6.6 years (2004) to approximately 3.0 years (2008/2012).
- Tdap booster immunity waned within 2.1 years in the 2012 model.
- Adult infection detection rates were significantly lower (1 in 10) compared to child detection rates (8 in 10).
Conclusions:
- Fluctuations in adult immunity and waning vaccine-acquired immunity contribute to pertussis incidence trends.
- No single factor fully explains current pertussis trends; multiple factors are involved.
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