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Indonesian prostate cancer risk calculator (IPCRC): an application for predicting prostate cancer risk (a multicenter
Prahara Yuri1, Grace Wangge, Fatan Abshari
1Department of Urology, Faculty of Medicine Universitas Indonesia - Cipto Mangunkusumo Hospital, Jakarta, Indonesia.
Aim:
to develop a prediction risk model of prostate cancer based on Indonesia population.
Methods:
we included all benign prostate hyperthrophy (BPH) and PCa patients who had prostate biopsy and prostatectomy between January 2009 and December 2013 from 5 urology centers in Indonesia. The relationship between the possibility of PCa with the following variables including: age; PSA level, prostate volume (by transabdominal ultrasound or transrectal ultrasound) and digital rectal examination (DRE) finding. We calculated a predictive scoring equation to predict the possibility of PCa using chi-square analysis, Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, multiple logistic regression and ROC curve. Then, we designed an application for predicting prostate cancer risk called Indonesian Prostate Cancer Risk Calculator (IPCRC).
Results:
there were 784 PCa and 1173 BPH patients were used for developing the risk calculator in our study. The mean ages, PSA and prostate volume are 66.9±8.1 years old; 72.4±248.9 ng/ml and 49.6±28.2 ml, respectively. Abnormal DRE was found in 637 PCa and 56 BPH. We included age, PSA level, abnormal DRE finding (all showed significant p<0.05 in univariate model). Additionally, although not significant, we included prostate volume (p=0.157) due to its clinical importance. The corrected ROC analysis showed AUC 0.935, sensitivity of 90.1% and specificity 80% in predicting the prostate cancer in our population.
Conclusion:
we have developed the Indonesian Prostate Cancer Risk Calculator which includes age, PSA, DRE, and prostate volume as its variables. Future prospective study to validate the risk calculator is needed.
