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Estimating Ixodes ricinus densities on the landscape scale.

Denise Boehnke1,2, Katharina Brugger3, Miriam Pfäffle4

  • 1Institute of Geography and Geoecology, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Reinhard-Baumeister-Platz 1, 76131, Karlsruhe, Germany. denise.boehnke@kit.edu.

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This study introduces a quantitative landscape-scale method to map questing nymphal Ixodes ricinus tick densities in Southwest Germany. This approach aids in assessing tick-borne disease risk by providing high-resolution tick distribution maps.

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental science
  • Epidemiology
  • Vector ecology

Background:

  • Estimating spatial distribution of questing nymphal tick densities is crucial for quantifying tick-borne disease risk.
  • Previous tick density maps were limited to local scales and varied vegetation-based categorizations.
  • This study introduces a quantitative, landscape-scale approach for mapping tick densities.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and calibrate Poisson regression models for estimating Ixodes ricinus nymphal tick densities.
  • To create high-resolution maps of tick densities at a landscape scale.
  • To provide a foundation for spatial estimation of tick-borne diseases in Central Europe.

Main Methods:

  • Collected host-seeking ticks monthly over two years (2013-2014) at 25 sites, flagging 100 sq meters per site.
  • Identified nymphal Ixodes ricinus ticks and used environmental variables (altitude, temperature, humidity, saturation deficit, land cover) to develop Poisson regression models.
  • Validated models using leave-one-out cross-validation to assess accuracy.

Main Results:

  • Nymphal tick densities varied significantly, ranging from zero to over 1,000 nymphs/100 m².
  • Poisson regression models explained 72% of variance in 2013 (prediction error: 110 nymphs/100 m²) and 46% in 2014 (prediction error: 61 nymphs/100 m²).
  • High-resolution maps (0.5 km² grid) were generated for Baden-Württemberg, with root-mean-square errors of 227 nymphs/100 m² (2013) and 104 nymphs/100 m² (2014).

Conclusions:

  • The developed methodology offers a quantitative, landscape-scale approach for mapping tick densities.
  • This method can be applied to other tick species and extended to different geographical regions.
  • This study represents a significant step towards the spatial estimation and management of tick-borne diseases in Central Europe.