Border Enforcement and Return Migration by Documented and Undocumented Mexicans

Area of Science:

• Socioeconomics and Demography
• Migration Studies
• Border Security

Background:

• Historically, Mexico-U.S. migration exhibited high circularity for both documented and undocumented migrants.
• Significant policy changes, particularly increased border enforcement post-1986, have impacted migration patterns.
• The legal status of migrants plays a crucial role in their migration dynamics and return probabilities.

Purpose of the Study:

• To compute departure and return probabilities for U.S. trips by Mexican migrants.
• To analyze determinants of migration departure and return based on legal status (documented vs. undocumented).
• To assess changes in migration circularity and settlement patterns over time.

Main Methods:

• Utilized data from the Mexican Migration Project.
• Computed probabilities of departure and return for first and subsequent trips.
• Estimated statistical models to identify determinants of departure and return, differentiating by legal status.

Main Results:

• Migration circularity declined significantly for undocumented migrants post-1986.
• Circularity increased dramatically for documented migrants after 1986.
• Undocumented return migration decreased in response to heightened border enforcement, unlike documented migration.

Conclusions:

• The Mexico-U.S. migration system has reached a new equilibrium.
• Undocumented migrants are increasingly long-term settlers in the U.S. due to enforcement.
• Documented migrants exhibit greater freedom of movement and increased border circulation.