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Related Experiment Videos

Border Enforcement and Return Migration by Documented and Undocumented Mexicans.

Douglas S Massey1, Jorge Durand2, Karen A Pren3

  • 1Princeton University dmassey@princeton.edu.

Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies
|August 15, 2015
PubMed
Summary

Since 1986, undocumented Mexico-U.S. migration has become less circular due to border enforcement, while documented migration has increased in circularity, leading to distinct migrant settlement patterns.

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Area of Science:

  • Socioeconomics and Demography
  • Migration Studies
  • Border Security

Background:

  • Historically, Mexico-U.S. migration exhibited high circularity for both documented and undocumented migrants.
  • Significant policy changes, particularly increased border enforcement post-1986, have impacted migration patterns.
  • The legal status of migrants plays a crucial role in their migration dynamics and return probabilities.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To compute departure and return probabilities for U.S. trips by Mexican migrants.
  • To analyze determinants of migration departure and return based on legal status (documented vs. undocumented).
  • To assess changes in migration circularity and settlement patterns over time.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized data from the Mexican Migration Project.
  • Computed probabilities of departure and return for first and subsequent trips.
  • Estimated statistical models to identify determinants of departure and return, differentiating by legal status.

Main Results:

  • Migration circularity declined significantly for undocumented migrants post-1986.
  • Circularity increased dramatically for documented migrants after 1986.
  • Undocumented return migration decreased in response to heightened border enforcement, unlike documented migration.

Conclusions:

  • The Mexico-U.S. migration system has reached a new equilibrium.
  • Undocumented migrants are increasingly long-term settlers in the U.S. due to enforcement.
  • Documented migrants exhibit greater freedom of movement and increased border circulation.