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Uncertainty in the number of contributors in the proposed new CODIS set
Michael D Coble1, Jo-Anne Bright2, John S Buckleton3
1National Institute of Standards and Technology, 100 Bureau Drive, Gaithersburg, MD 20899, USA.
Abstract:
The probability that multiple contributors are detected within a forensic DNA profile improves as more highly polymorphic loci are analysed. The assignment of the correct number of contributors to a profile is important when interpreting the DNA profiles. In this work we investigate the probability of a mixed DNA profile appearing as having originated from a fewer number of contributors for the African American, Asian, Caucasian and Hispanic US populations. We investigate a range of locus configurations from the proposed new CODIS set. These theoretical calculations are based on allele frequencies only and ignore peak heights. We show that the probability of a higher order mixture (five or six contributors) appearing as having originated from one less individual is high. This probability decreases as the number of loci tested increases.
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