Cost-effectiveness analysis of papillary thyroid cancer surveillance

The recent overdiagnosis of subclinical, low-risk papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) coincides with a growing national interest in cost-effective health care practices. The aim of this study was to measure the relative cost-effectiveness of disease surveillance of low-risk PTC patients versus intermediate- and high-risk patients in accordance with American Thyroid Association risk categories.

Two thousand nine hundred thirty-two patients who underwent thyroidectomy for differentiated thyroid cancer between 2000 and 2010 were identified from the institutional database; 1845 patients were excluded because they had non-PTC cancer, underwent less than total thyroidectomy, had a secondary cancer, or had <36 months of follow-up. In total, 1087 were included for analysis. The numbers of postoperative blood tests, imaging scans and biopsies, clinician office visits, and recurrence events were recorded for the first 36 months of follow-up. Costs of surveillance were determined with the Physician Fee Schedule and Clinical Lab Fee Schedule of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.

The median age was 44 years (range, 7-83 years). In the first 36 months after thyroidectomy, there were 3, 44, and 22 recurrences (0.8%, 7.8%, and 13.4%) in the low-, intermediate-, and high-risk categories, respectively. The cost of surveillance for each recurrence detected was US $147,819, US $22,434, and US $20,680, respectively.

The cost to detect a recurrence in a low-risk patient is more than 6 and 7 times greater than the cost for intermediate- and high-risk PTC patients. It is difficult to justify this allocation of resources to the surveillance of low-risk patients. Surveillance strategies for the low-risk group should, therefore, be restructured.