Evolution of environmental cues for phenotypic plasticity

Phenotypically plastic characters may respond to multiple variables in their environment, but the evolutionary consequences of this phenomenon have rarely been addressed theoretically. We model the evolution of linear reaction norms in response to several correlated environmental variables, in a population undergoing stationary environmental fluctuations. At evolutionary equilibrium, the linear combination of environmental variables that acts as a developmental cue for the plastic trait is the multivariate best linear predictor of changes in the optimum. However, the reaction norm with respect to any single environmental variable may exhibit nonintuitive patterns. Apparently maladaptive, or hyperadaptive plasticity can evolve with respect to single environmental variables, and costs of plasticity may increase, rather than reduce, plasticity in response to some variables. We also find conditions for the evolution of an indirect environmental indicator that affects expression of a plastic phenotype, despite not influencing natural selection on it.