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A quantitative model to predict blood use in adult orthotopic liver transplantation
Chang Liu1, Neeta Vachharajani2, Shuang Song3
1Department of Pathology & Immunology, Washington University, St. Louis, MO, USA.
To identify preoperative predictors for the use of any blood component during and after orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT), we performed a retrospective analysis on 602 OLT patients who were randomly split into a training set (n = 482) and a validation set (n = 120). Hemoglobin and calculated MELD score were identified as independent predictors for blood use using bootstrap aggregation. A logistic regression model constructed using both variables showed comparable performance in the training and validation sets. Predictive scores can be obtained from a nomogram, and a score above -2.328 predicted transfusion of any blood component with a positive predictive value of 97% and 96% in the training and validation sets, respectively.
To identify preoperative predictors for the use of any blood component during and after orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT), we performed a retrospective analysis on 602 OLT patients who were randomly split into a training set (n = 482) and a validation set (n = 120). Hemoglobin and calculated MELD score were identified as independent predictors for blood use using bootstrap aggregation. A logistic regression model constructed using both variables showed comparable performance in the training and validation sets. Predictive scores can be obtained from a nomogram, and a score above -2.328 predicted transfusion of any blood component with a positive predictive value of 97% and 96% in the training and validation sets, respectively.
