A screening model for oral cancer using risk scores: development and validation

Area of Science:

• Oncology
• Public Health
• Epidemiology

Background:

• Oral cancer poses a significant health burden, particularly in India.
• Early detection is crucial for improving patient outcomes and survival rates.
• Effective screening tools are needed to identify at-risk populations.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and validate a screening model for oral cancer risk.
• To utilize a risk score system for identifying high-risk individuals in the Indian population.
• To assess the predictive ability of the developed model.

Main Methods:

• A multicentre case-control study in India was conducted.
• Life-course data on risk factors like smoking, tobacco chewing, alcohol, family history, diet, and oral hygiene were collected.
• A risk score model was developed using odds ratios and validated using bootstrap samples.

Main Results:

• Key predictors identified included smoking, tobacco/quid chewing, alcohol, family history, diet, and oral hygiene.
• The risk score model demonstrated good discrimination with an area under the ROC curve of 0.866.
• A cut-off score of 6 yielded high sensitivity (0.928) and negative predictive value (0.927), but lower specificity and positive predictive value.

Conclusions:

• A validated risk score model for oral cancer screening in the Indian population was successfully developed.
• The model shows satisfactory predictive ability for identifying individuals at high risk.
• Further validation in diverse populations is recommended before widespread clinical application.