Investigating the Incidence of Prostate Cancer in Iran 2005 -2008 using Bayesian Spatial Ecological Regression Models

Prostate cancer is the most commonly diagnosed form of cancer and the sixth leading cause of cancer-related deaths among men in the entire world. Reported standardized incidence rates are 12.6, 61.7, 11.9 and 27.9 in Iran, developed countries, developing countries and the entire world, respectively. The present study investigated the relative risk of PC in Iran at the province level and also explored the impact of some factors by the use of Bayesian models.

Our study population was all men with PC in Iran from 2005 to 2008. Considered risk factors were smoking, fruit and vegetable intake, physical activity, obesity and human development index. We used empirical and full Bayesian models to study the relative risk in Iran at province level to estimate the risk of PC more accurately.

In Iran from 2005 to 2008 the total number of known PC cases was 10,361 with most cases found in Fars and Tehran and the least in Ilam. In all models just human development index was found to be significantly related to PC risk Conclusions: In the unadjusted model, Fars, Semnam, Isfahan and Tehran provinces have the highest and Sistan-and-Baluchestan has the least risk of PC. In general, central provinces have high risk. After adjusting for covariates, Fars and Zanjan provinces have the highest relative risk and Kerman, Northern Khorasan, Kohgiluyeh Boyer Ahmad, Ghazvin and Kermanshah have the lowest relative risk. According to the results, the incidence of PC in provinces with higher human development index is higher.