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Conservation Risks: When Will Rhinos be Extinct?

Timothy C Haas, Sam M Ferreira

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    Biodiversity enterprises face extinction risks for endangered species due to poaching. A new economic-ecological model predicts South African rhino extinction by 2036 without conservation intervention.

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    Area of Science:

    • Ecology
    • Conservation Biology
    • Environmental Economics

    Background:

    • Biodiversity enterprises rely on endangered species, facing risks from poaching and extinction.
    • Lack of insurance products exacerbates extinction event risk exposure.
    • Anthropogenic impacts and ecological stressors predict extinction risks for many species.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To develop a risk intelligence system for biodiversity enterprises.
    • To create an agent/individual-based economic-ecological model to predict species extinction.
    • To apply the model to South African rhinos and assess current extinction risks.

    Main Methods:

    • Developed an agent/individual-based economic-ecological model.
    • Incorporated anthropogenic impacts, economic values, and ecological stressors.
    • Applied the model to South African rhino population dynamics and poaching statistics.

    Main Results:

    • The model predicts continued decline in rhino populations under the current scenario (no legal horn trade, but live trade and hunting allowed).
    • Accelerated extinction risks for rhinos are predicted by 2036.
    • The model can compute extinction risks at any future time point to evaluate conservation strategies.

    Conclusions:

    • The developed model provides a tool for risk assessment in biodiversity enterprises.
    • Effective conservation strategies are crucial to mitigate predicted rhino extinction.
    • Big Data algorithms are proposed for statistically estimating and interpreting model outputs.