Dispositional sources of sanction perceptions: Emotionality, cognitive style, intolerance of ambiguity, and...

This study contributes to efforts to identify the sources of arrest risk perceptions and ambiguity (or lack of confidence) in such perceptions. Drawing on dual-process theories of reasoning, we argue that arrest risk perceptions often represent intuitive judgments that are influenced by cognitive heuristics and dispositional attributes. Multivariate regression models are estimated with data from 3 national surveys to test 6 hypotheses about the relationships between specific dispositional attributes and perceived arrest risk and ambiguity. We find evidence that dispositional positive affect and intolerance of ambiguity are both positively related to perceived arrest risk, and are also both negatively related to ambiguity. We also find evidence that cognitive reflection and general self-efficacy are, respectively, positively and negatively associated with ambiguity. Mixed evidence emerges about whether cognitive reflection is related to risk perceptions, and about whether either dispositional negative affect or thoughtfully reflective decision making correlate with ambiguity. Taken together, the results provide partial support for each of our hypotheses, and suggest that dispositional attributes are important sources of perceptions of arrest risk as well as of ambiguity in such perceptions.