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Acceptance, values, and probability.

Daniel Steel1

  • 1The W. Maurice Young Center for Applied Ethics, 227-6356 Agricultural Road, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z2, Canada.

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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Personal probabilities in Bayesian confirmation are subject to inductive risk, meaning non-epistemic values can influence scientific hypothesis acceptance and confirmation degrees. This impacts evidence thresholds and probability model choices.

Keywords:
AcceptanceBayesianConfirmationInductive riskValues

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Area of Science:

  • Philosophy of Science
  • Bayesian Epistemology

Background:

  • Personal probabilities are central to Bayesian confirmation theory.
  • The argument from inductive risk posits that non-epistemic values can influence scientific decisions.
  • Existing frameworks often separate epistemic and non-epistemic factors in scientific reasoning.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To argue for treating personal probabilities in Bayesian confirmation as objects of acceptance and rejection.
  • To demonstrate that personal probabilities are subject to the argument from inductive risk.
  • To explore the implications of inductive risk for value judgments in Bayesian analyses.

Main Methods:

  • Conceptual analysis of personal probabilities within Bayesian confirmation.
  • Application of the argument from inductive risk to Bayesian probability models (likelihoods and priors).
  • Examination of how non-epistemic values might influence the acceptance of hypotheses and probability assignments.

Main Results:

  • Personal probabilities in Bayesian confirmation analyses can be accepted or rejected.
  • The argument from inductive risk legitimately applies to personal probabilities, influencing their acceptance.
  • Value judgments can impact the selection of probability models for likelihoods and priors in Bayesian inference.

Conclusions:

  • Non-epistemic values can legitimately influence scientific decisions regarding hypothesis acceptance in a Bayesian context.
  • The argument from inductive risk suggests that value judgments affect not only the evidence threshold but also the degree of confirmation itself.
  • Accepting personal probabilities as objects of acceptance/rejection integrates inductive risk into the core of Bayesian confirmation theory.