Mapping Activity Patterns to Quantify Risk of Violent Assault in Urban Environments

Area of Science:

• Criminology
• Urban Studies
• Public Health

Background:

• Investigating the dynamic interplay between urban youth's lived experiences, environmental exposures, and violent assault risk.
• Examining how time spent in different environments influences the likelihood of experiencing violent assault.

Purpose of the Study:

• To systematically document the daily activities and experiences of urban youth.
• To empirically quantify the risks associated with violent assault among adolescents and young men.
• To gain novel insights into the triggers for violent assault by analyzing temporal and spatial risk factors.

Main Methods:

• Mapped detailed activity paths of 10- to 24-year-olds, including assault cases and community controls.
• Utilized case-control analyses to identify risk factors for assault.
• Employed case-crossover analyses to investigate exposure increases as triggers for assault.

Main Results:

• Gunshot assault risks were associated with being alone (OR=1.6) and increased in areas with vacancy, violence, and vandalism (OR=1.7).
• Neighbor connectedness was associated with lower gunshot assault risk (OR=0.7).
• Nongunshot assault risks were linked to recreation centers (OR=1.2) and areas with truancy and vacancy (OR=1.6).

Conclusions:

• Large-scale documentation of urban youth activities provides empirical quantification of violence risks.
• Analysis at relevant temporal and spatial scales offers novel insights into violent assault triggers.
• Findings highlight the importance of environmental and social factors in youth violence.