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[Ecologic dynamics of infectious diseases. II. Periodic recurrence of epidemics]
Abstract:
The incidence of hepatitis, mumps, poliomyelitis, scarlet fever, pertussis and measles from 1954 to 1984 was studied from the annual records of infectious diseases. Fluctuations were evaluated by Fourier analysis. Periodic recurrency was detected for poliomyelitis, scarlet fever, pertussis and measles and was likely for mumps. The asynchronic fluctuation of the proportion of cases and susceptible individuals is considered to be the origin of this phenomenon. Observed fluctuations corresponded to those predicted by the models.
Insights
Periodic patterns in infectious disease outbreaks like measles and polio were identified using Fourier analysis of historical data. These fluctuations are linked to the dynamic balance between cases and susceptible populations.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Mathematical Biology
- Public Health
Context:
- Analysis of historical infectious disease records from 1954 to 1984.
- Focus on diseases including hepatitis, mumps, poliomyelitis, scarlet fever, pertussis, and measles.
- Utilizes Fourier analysis to identify temporal patterns in disease incidence.
Purpose:
- To investigate periodic recurrences in the incidence of major infectious diseases.
- To understand the underlying mechanisms driving disease outbreak fluctuations.
- To validate epidemiological models against observed historical data.
Summary:
- Fourier analysis revealed periodic recurrences in poliomyelitis, scarlet fever, pertussis, and measles incidence.
- Mumps incidence showed a likely periodic pattern.
- Asynchronous fluctuations in case numbers and susceptible individuals are proposed as the cause.
- Observed disease patterns align with theoretical model predictions.
Impact:
- Provides insights into the cyclical nature of infectious disease transmission.
- Highlights the importance of host-pathogen dynamics in disease epidemiology.
- Contributes to the predictive modeling of infectious disease outbreaks.