Motor and functional recovery after stroke: accuracy of physical therapists' predictions

The degree to which physical therapists correctly predicted motor and functional outcome for stroke patients was investigated. Therapists used an adapted form of the physical therapy portion of the Patient Evaluation Conference System (PECSc)--a 14-item assessment measured on an 8-point scale. At admission to a rehabilitation hospital, therapists performed initial assessments of seven motor and functional items on 204 patients and assigned goal scores; before discharge the patients were reevaluated and their final scores determined. The accuracy by which therapists correctly predicted the final score ranged from 53% to 67%; therapists were accurate to within one score for 80% to 83% of patients. The only determinant of accuracy was initial score; neither patient characteristics (age, side of lesion) nor staff experience were found to be associated with correctly predicting final score. Sensitivity and specificity of the goals for predicting independence were examined for three items: lying to sitting, ambulation, and stairs. The sensitivity of a goal of independence was high (96% to 100%), indicating that those patients who were independent at discharge were correctly identified by therapists at admission. The predictive value of a goal of dependence was also very high (91% to 100%), indicating that patients predicted to remain dependent did so. These results suggest that therapists' predictions could prove useful in screening patients for rehabilitation and in planning treatment strategies.