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Related Concept Videos

Uncertainty: Overview00:59

Uncertainty: Overview

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In analytical chemistry, we often perform repetitive measurements to detect and minimize inaccuracies caused by both determinate and indeterminate errors. Despite the cares we take, the presence of random errors means that repeated measurements almost never have exactly the same magnitude. The collective difference between these measurements - observed values - and the estimated or expected value is called uncertainty. Uncertainty is conventionally written after the estimated or expected value.
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Propagation of Uncertainty from Random Error00:59

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An experiment often consists of more than a single step. In this case, measurements at each step give rise to uncertainty. Because the measurements occur in successive steps, the uncertainty in one step necessarily contributes to that in the subsequent step. As we perform statistical analysis on these types of experiments, we must learn to account for the propagation of uncertainty from one step to the next. The propagation of uncertainty depends on the type of arithmetic operation performed on...
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Uncertainty: Confidence Intervals00:54

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The confidence interval is the range of values around the mean that contains the true mean. It is expressed as a probability percentage. The interpretation of a 95% confidence interval, for instance, is that the statistician is 95% confident that the true mean falls within the interval. The upper and lower limits of this range are known as confidence limits. The confidence limits for the true mean are estimated from the sample's mean, the standard deviation, and the statistical factor...
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Propagation of Uncertainty from Systematic Error01:10

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The atomic mass of an element varies due to the relative ratio of its isotopes. A sample's relative proportion of oxygen isotopes influences its average atomic mass. For instance, if we were to measure the atomic mass of oxygen from a sample, the mass would be a weighted average of the isotopic masses of oxygen in that sample. Since a single sample is not likely to perfectly reflect the true atomic mass of oxygen for all the molecules of oxygen on Earth, the mass we obtain from this...
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The Uncertainty Principle04:08

The Uncertainty Principle

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Werner Heisenberg considered the limits of how accurately one can measure properties of an electron or other microscopic particles. He determined that there is a fundamental limit to how accurately one can measure both a particle’s position and its momentum simultaneously. The more accurate the measurement of the momentum of a particle is known, the less accurate the position at that time is known and vice versa. This is what is now called the Heisenberg uncertainty principle. He...
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Uncertainty in Measurement: Accuracy and Precision03:37

Uncertainty in Measurement: Accuracy and Precision

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Scientists typically make repeated measurements of a quantity to ensure the quality of their findings and to evaluate both the precision and the accuracy of their results. Measurements are said to be precise if they yield very similar results when repeated in the same manner. A measurement is considered accurate if it yields a result that is very close to the true or the accepted value. Precise values agree with each other; accurate values agree with a true value. 
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Experimental Research Examining How People Can Cope with Uncertainty Through Soft Haptic Sensations
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Uncertainty as knowledge.

Stephan Lewandowsky1, Timothy Ballard2, Richard D Pancost3

  • 1School of Experimental Psychology and Cabot Institute, University of Bristol, 12a Priory Road, Bristol BS8 1TU, UK School of Psychology, University of Western Australia, Crawley, Western Australia 6009, Australia stephan.lewandowsky@bristol.ac.uk.

Philosophical Transactions. Series A, Mathematical, Physical, and Engineering Sciences
|October 14, 2015
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Scientific uncertainty in climate change necessitates action, not delay. Greater uncertainty amplifies climate risks, transforming it into actionable knowledge for informed decision-making and risk management.

Keywords:
climate changeclimate mitigationscientific uncertainty

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Area of Science:

  • Climate Science
  • Environmental Economics
  • Social Sciences

Background:

  • Climate change involves inherent scientific uncertainty.
  • Uncertainty is often used to delay climate action.
  • Effective responses to an uncertain climate are crucial.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To examine the relationship between scientific uncertainty and knowledge regarding climate change.
  • To explore how uncertainty can be a source of actionable knowledge.
  • To survey perspectives on uncertainty from physical, economic, and social sciences.

Main Methods:

  • Survey of papers addressing climate change uncertainty and knowledge.
  • Analysis from physical, economic, and social science viewpoints.
  • Summary of psychological effects of uncertainty.

Main Results:

  • Uncertainty increases climate change risks, necessitating concern.
  • Uncertainty can be reframed as a source of actionable knowledge.
  • Psychological factors can hinder responses to climate change.

Conclusions:

  • The appropriate response to climate uncertainty is increased concern and action.
  • Actionable knowledge can be derived from understanding climate uncertainty.
  • Addressing psychological barriers is key to effective climate change response.