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Related Experiment Video

Updated: Apr 1, 2026

Simulating Temperature in a Soil Incubation Experiment

Simulating Temperature in a Soil Incubation Experiment

Published on: October 28, 2022

Climate sensitivity uncertainty: when is good news bad?

Mark C Freeman¹, Gernot Wagner², Richard J Zeckhauser³

¹School of Business and Economics, Loughborough University, Loughborough LE11 3TU, UK.

Philosophical Transactions. Series A, Mathematical, Physical, and Engineering Sciences

|October 14, 2015

Summary

Climate sensitivity estimates remain uncertain. Recent changes in reporting, like lowering the lower bound and removing a best estimate, may signal worsening societal impacts from climate change.

Keywords:

climate change climate sensitivity mean-preserving spread risk–return trade-off uncertainty willingness to pay

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Last Updated: Apr 1, 2026

Simulating Temperature in a Soil Incubation Experiment

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Temperature Response of Soil Organic Matter Decomposition Rates: Construction and Applications of a Temperature Gradient Block

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Split Point Analysis and Uncertainty Quantification of Thermal-Optical Organic/Elemental Carbon Measurements

Split Point Analysis and Uncertainty Quantification of Thermal-Optical Organic/Elemental Carbon Measurements

Published on: September 7, 2019

Area of Science:

Climate science
Environmental science
Earth system science

Background:

Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) quantifies temperature response to doubled atmospheric CO2.
ECS likely range has been stable (1.5-4.5°C) for decades, with recent IPCC reports showing fluctuations.
The 2013 IPCC report revised the ECS range and removed the 'best estimate' of 3°C.

Purpose of the Study:

To interpret the implications of the 2013 IPCC report's changes to the ECS range.
To assess when seemingly positive news about climate sensitivity could negatively impact societal well-being.
To analyze the consequences of a lowered ECS lower bound and the removal of a best estimate.

Main Methods:

Analysis of IPCC assessment reports on climate sensitivity.
Interpretation of climate sensitivity parameter changes.
Evaluation of potential societal well-being impacts under revised climate scenarios.

Main Results:

Lowering the ECS lower bound may imply greater uncertainty in temperature projections.
Removal of the 'best estimate' for ECS introduces ambiguity.
Both changes, under reasonable assumptions, could indicate negative consequences for societal well-being.

Conclusions:

The 2013 IPCC report's revisions to climate sensitivity reporting may represent "bad news" for societal well-being.
Increased uncertainty in climate sensitivity is a significant concern.
Further research is needed to fully understand the societal implications of revised climate sensitivity estimates.