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A phase diagram combines plots of pressure versus temperature for the liquid-gas, solid-liquid, and solid-gas phase-transition equilibria of a substance. These diagrams indicate the physical states that exist under specific conditions of pressure and temperature and also provide the pressure dependence of the phase-transition temperatures (melting points, sublimation points, boiling points). Regions or areas labeled solid, liquid, and gas represent single phases, while lines or curves represent...
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Atmospheric CO2 penetrates the concrete's pores and, in the presence of moisture, forms carbonic acid, which then reacts with calcium hydroxide in the hydrated cement, forming calcium carbonate. This process reduces the concrete's volume and is termed carbonation shrinkage.
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Declining CO2 price paths.

Kent D Daniel1,2, Robert B Litterman3, Gernot Wagner4

  • 1Columbia Business School, New York, NY 10027.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
|October 3, 2019
PubMed
Summary

Pricing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions requires balancing present consumption with future climate damages. Our model suggests a high initial carbon price that decreases over time, with significant costs for delayed action.

Keywords:
asset pricingclimate riskcost of carbon

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental Economics
  • Climate Change Modeling
  • Asset Pricing Theory

Background:

  • Standard climate-economy models often overlook financial economics insights for pricing emissions.
  • Decision-making under risk and uncertainty is crucial for addressing climate change impacts.

Purpose of the Study:

  • Introduce EZ-Climate, a novel asset pricing model for calibrating carbon dioxide (CO2) prices.
  • Integrate Epstein-Zin preferences to decouple risk and intertemporal substitution in climate-economy analysis.

Main Methods:

  • Developed a simple recursive dynamic asset pricing model (EZ-Climate).
  • Calibrated the CO2 price path using probabilistic assumptions on climate damages.
  • Utilized an Epstein-Zin specification to model societal consumption preferences across time and states of nature.

Main Results:

  • EZ-Climate indicates a high initial CO2 price that declines over time, contrary to typical model projections.
  • Increased risk aversion leads to higher CO2 prices and risk premiums.
  • Delaying emissions pricing incurs substantial economic costs, with a 1-year delay causing over 2% annual consumption loss.

Conclusions:

  • The EZ-Climate model offers a new perspective on CO2 pricing, emphasizing immediate action.
  • Societal risk aversion and preferences for intertemporal substitution significantly influence optimal climate policy.
  • Prompt implementation of carbon pricing is critical to mitigate severe economic consequences of climate change.