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Climate sensitivity uncertainty: when is good news bad?
Mark C Freeman1, Gernot Wagner2, Richard J Zeckhauser3
1School of Business and Economics, Loughborough University, Loughborough LE11 3TU, UK.
Summary
Climate sensitivity estimates remain uncertain. Recent changes in reporting, like lowering the lower bound and removing a best estimate, may signal worsening societal impacts from climate change.
Area of Science:
- Climate science
- Environmental science
- Earth system science
Background:
- Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) quantifies temperature response to doubled atmospheric CO2.
- ECS likely range has been stable (1.5-4.5°C) for decades, with recent IPCC reports showing fluctuations.
- The 2013 IPCC report revised the ECS range and removed the 'best estimate' of 3°C.
Purpose of the Study:
- To interpret the implications of the 2013 IPCC report's changes to the ECS range.
- To assess when seemingly positive news about climate sensitivity could negatively impact societal well-being.
- To analyze the consequences of a lowered ECS lower bound and the removal of a best estimate.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of IPCC assessment reports on climate sensitivity.
- Interpretation of climate sensitivity parameter changes.
- Evaluation of potential societal well-being impacts under revised climate scenarios.
Main Results:
- Lowering the ECS lower bound may imply greater uncertainty in temperature projections.
- Removal of the 'best estimate' for ECS introduces ambiguity.
- Both changes, under reasonable assumptions, could indicate negative consequences for societal well-being.
Conclusions:
- The 2013 IPCC report's revisions to climate sensitivity reporting may represent "bad news" for societal well-being.
- Increased uncertainty in climate sensitivity is a significant concern.
- Further research is needed to fully understand the societal implications of revised climate sensitivity estimates.
Keywords:
climate changeclimate sensitivitymean-preserving spreadrisk–return trade-offuncertaintywillingness to payMore Related Videos
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