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Future Cognitive Ability: US IQ Prediction until 2060 Based on NAEP.
Heiner Rindermann1, Stefan Pichelmann1
1Department of Psychology, Technische Universität Chemnitz, Chemnitz, Germany.
Plos One
|October 14, 2015
Summary
Cognitive abilities in US students are projected to rise modestly by 2060, with significant shifts in ethnic group performance and narrowing achievement gaps. Demographic changes will largely offset individual gains.
Area of Science:
- Educational Psychology
- Cognitive Science
- Sociology
Background:
- The US National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) has tracked student cognitive skills since 1971.
- Understanding long-term cognitive trends and demographic shifts is crucial for educational and economic forecasting.
Purpose of the Study:
- To predict future cognitive trends in US students until 2060.
- To analyze the impact of demographic changes on overall cognitive averages.
- To estimate changes in ethnic group achievement gaps.
Main Methods:
- Utilized NAEP data from 1971-2012 for 17-year-old students.
- Developed two projection models (optimistic and pessimistic) based on past NAEP trends.
- Integrated US Census Bureau demographic projections to estimate future population averages and ethnic group performance.
Main Results:
- Projected average IQ scores for 2060 range from 102 to 103, indicating a modest increase.
- Achievement gaps between White and Black/Hispanic students are projected to halve, while Asian-White gaps may treble.
- Minority group catch-up contributes to general cognitive rise, but their increasing population share tempers overall gains.
Conclusions:
- US student cognitive abilities are projected to increase slightly by 2060, with significant shifts in inter-group dynamics.
- Demographic changes play a substantial role, moderating the impact of individual cognitive gains on population averages.
- Findings have implications for future economic and societal development planning.
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