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Do citation trends reflect epidemiologic patterns? Assessing MRSA, emerging and re-emerging pathogens, 1963-2014
Ethan Morgan1, Michael Z David2,3
1Department of Public Health Sciences, University of Chicago, Chicago, USA. morgane@uchicago.edu.
BMC Infectious Diseases
|October 28, 2015
Summary
Citation trends for methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) do not reflect actual disease incidence. MRSA citation patterns did not correlate with epidemiologic trends, unlike other infectious diseases.
Area of Science:
- Bibliometrics
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology
- Medical Informatics
Background:
- PubMed citations for methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) increased significantly post-2000.
- The correlation between citation trends and actual infectious disease epidemiology remains unclear.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the relationship between citation trends and epidemiologic trends for MRSA and other infectious diseases.
- To determine if citation patterns can predict or reflect disease incidence over time.
Main Methods:
- PubMed database was queried for citations related to MRSA and other selected infectious diseases (HIV/AIDS, SARS, Lyme disease, etc.).
- Incidence or mortality data for these diseases were collected and tabulated.
- Citation patterns were analyzed and categorized into distinct types (Type I and Type II).
Main Results:
- A total of 560,225 citations were identified between 1963 and 2014.
- Two citation patterns emerged: Type I (decade of exponential growth) and Type II (sudden spike followed by decline).
- MRSA citations most closely aligned with the Type I pattern.
Conclusions:
- Citation trends for Type I pathogens did not consistently correlate with their real-world disease incidence.
- Citation trends, particularly for MRSA, are not reliable indicators of past epidemiologic trends.
- MRSA citation trends from 1995-2011 showed similarities to HIV citation trends from 1981-1998.
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