Lost in space: design of experiments and scientific exploration in a Hogarth Universe

A Hogarth, or 'wicked', universe is an irregular environment generating data to support erroneous beliefs. Here, we argue that development scientists often work in such a universe. We demonstrate that exploring these multidimensional spaces using small experiments guided by scientific intuition alone, gives rise to an illusion of validity and a misplaced confidence in that scientific intuition. By contrast, design of experiments (DOE) permits the efficient mapping of such complex, multidimensional spaces. We describe simulation tools that enable research scientists to explore these spaces in relative safety.