The simultaneous effects of pharmaceutical policies from payers' and patients' perspectives: Italy as a case study

This paper aims at covering a literature gap on the effects of copayments, prescription quotas and therapeutic reference pricing on public and private expenditures and volumes (1) When these policies are implemented in different areas at different times, (2) estimating their impact in the short and long run, (3) assessing the extent to which these impacts are interdependent, (4) scrutinising the extent to which the effects are mediated by prescribers' and patients' behaviours.

Monthly regional data on pharmaceutical expenditures, volumes and policies in Italy from 2000 to 2014 are analysed using a difference-in-differences model enriched to capture short- versus long-term effects and simultaneous and interactive effects. Sobel-Goodman test and bootstrap analyses were used to test for mediation.

The three policies have different short- and long-run effects. Interactions support the hypothesis of reinforcing effects. Behavioural reactions to policies such as reducing the demand or total per capita expenditures mediate the impact of policies, thus explaining the different effects between the short and long term.

Evidence on the impact over time of regional policies diversely introduced in different times have important policy implications. First, pharmaceutical policies interact with each other, and the combined effect may be different from what we would expect from the sum of each single policy. Hence, policymakers should be very careful in designing mixed policies for their unexpected combined effects. Second, the impact of policies tends to reduce over time. If longer-term impact is desired, it would be appropriate to introduce some adjustments over time. Third, policies have multiple effects, and this should be considered when they are designed. Finally, pharmaceutical policies may have an unintended impact on health and health care.