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The acute:chronic workload ratio predicts injury: high chronic workload may decrease injury risk in elite rugby

Billy T Hulin1, Tim J Gabbett2, Daniel W Lawson3

  • 1Centre for Human and Applied Physiology, School of Medicine, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, New South Wales, Australia Performance Department, St. George Illawarra Dragons Rugby League Football Club, Wollongong, New South Wales, Australia.

British Journal of Sports Medicine
|October 30, 2015
PubMed
Summary

Sudden increases in training load, indicated by a high acute:chronic workload ratio, significantly elevate injury risk in elite rugby players. Players with higher chronic workloads are more resilient but still vulnerable to sharp workload spikes.

Keywords:
FatigueFitnessInjuryTraining

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Area of Science:

  • Sports Medicine
  • Biomechanics
  • Exercise Physiology

Background:

  • Understanding workload management is crucial for injury prevention in elite athletes.
  • The acute:chronic workload ratio is a key metric for monitoring training load.
  • Elite rugby league presents unique demands influencing player injury risk.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the predictive power of acute and chronic workloads on injury incidence in elite rugby league players.
  • To determine the relationship between the acute:chronic workload ratio and injury risk.
  • To identify specific workload thresholds associated with increased injury risk.

Main Methods:

  • Longitudinal data collection from 53 elite rugby league players over two seasons.
  • Calculation of the acute:chronic workload ratio by dividing acute workload by chronic workload.
  • Classification of workload data into discrete ranges using z-scores.

Main Results:

  • A very-high acute:chronic workload ratio (≥2.11) showed the highest injury risk in the current and subsequent weeks (16.7% and 11.8%).
  • High chronic workload combined with a very-high 2-week average acute:chronic workload ratio (≥1.54) posed the greatest injury risk (28.6%).
  • Isolated assessment of acute or chronic workloads did not consistently predict injury.

Conclusions:

  • Workload management has a dual effect on injury risk in elite rugby.
  • Players with high chronic workloads exhibit greater resilience but are susceptible to 'spikes' in acute workload (very-high acute:chronic workload ratios).
  • Specific workload ratios, particularly very-high ones, are critical indicators for potential injury in elite rugby league players.