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Interpreting confidence intervals: A comment on Hoekstra, Morey, Rouder, and Wagenmakers (2014)

Jeff Miller1, Rolf Ulrich2

  • 1Department of Psychology, University of Otago, PO Box 56, Dunedin, 9054, New Zealand. miller@psy.otago.ac.nz.

Psychonomic Bulletin & Review
|November 13, 2015
PubMed

Keywords:
Confidence intervalsStatistical inference

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Confidence Intervals

An unbiased point estimate is often insufficient to predict a population estimate, such as population mean or population proportion. In this scenario, a confidence interval is used. A confidence interval is an estimate similar to a sample proportion. However, unlike the point estimate which is a single value, the confidence interval contains a range of values. These values have lower and upper limits, known as confidence limits, and can be designated as L1 and L2, respectively.
A confidence...
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A confidence interval is a better estimate of the population than a point estimate, as it uses a range of values from a sample instead of a single value.
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A point estimate of the population mean is obtained from a single sample. Such a point estimate does not represent a population well because it needs to account for variability in the population. Single point estimate can also be biased despite the sample being selected randomly. Thus, a point estimate is often unreliable. A confidence interval is needed to reduce this unreliability.
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Prediction Intervals

The interval estimate of any variable is known as the prediction interval. It helps decide if a point estimate is dependable.
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