The Inverse Method for a Childhood Infectious Disease Model with Its Application to Pre-vaccination and...

In this paper, we improve the classic SEIR model by separating the juvenile group and the adult group to better describe the dynamics of childhood infectious diseases. We perform stability analysis to study the asymptotic dynamics of the new model, and perform sensitivity analysis to uncover the relative importance of the parameters on infection. The transmission rate is a key parameter in controlling the spread of an infectious disease as it directly determines the disease incidence. However, it is essentially impossible to measure the transmission rate for certain infectious diseases. We introduce an inverse method for our new model, which can extract the time-dependent transmission rate from either prevalence data or incidence data in existing open databases. Pre- and post-vaccination measles data sets from Liverpool and London are applied to estimate the time-varying transmission rate. From the Fourier transform of the transmission rate of Liverpool and London, we observe two spectral peaks with frequencies 1/year and 3/year. These dominant frequencies are robust with respect to different initial values. The dominant 1/year frequency is consistent with common belief that measles is driven by seasonal factors such as environmental changes and immune system changes and the 3/year frequency indicates the superiority of school contacts in driving measles transmission over other seasonal factors. Our results show that in coastal cities, the main modulator of the transmission of measles virus, paramyxovirus, is school seasons. On the other hand, in landlocked cities, both weather and school seasons have almost the same influence on paramyxovirus transmission.