Measuring sterility from incomplete birth histories.

Area of Science:

• Demography
• Reproductive Health
• Statistical Modeling

Background:

• Assessing sterility is crucial for understanding population dynamics and reproductive health.
• Incomplete birth histories from demographic surveys present challenges for accurate sterility measurement.
• Existing methods, like the open birth interval, have limitations.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and evaluate methods for measuring sterility and its age pattern from incomplete reproductive histories.
• To compare the robustness of new estimation techniques against traditional measures.

Main Methods:

• Simulation study to assess method characteristics under varying conditions.
• Analysis of World Fertility Survey data from sub-Saharan Africa.
• Estimation of sterility levels and age patterns using fertility data subsequent to a given age.

Main Results:

• Estimates based on fertility subsequent to a given age are more robust to variations in reproductive determinants, sample size, and sampling variation.
• Sterility levels varied significantly across sub-Saharan African countries: high in Cameroon, intermediate in Lesotho and Sudan, and low in Ghana and Kenya.
• Comparison with an English historical population provided a reference for relative sterility levels.

Conclusions:

• The proposed methods offer a more reliable approach to measuring sterility from incomplete birth histories.
• Significant regional variations in sterility exist within sub-Saharan Africa, highlighting the need for context-specific reproductive health strategies.
• These findings contribute to a better understanding of reproductive health indicators in demographic research.