Trajectory-probed instability and statistics of desynchronization events in coupled chaotic systems

Complex systems, such as financial markets, earthquakes, and neurological networks, exhibit extreme events whose mechanisms of formation are not still completely understood. These mechanisms may be identified and better studied in simpler systems with dynamical features similar to the ones encountered in the complex system of interest. For instance, sudden and brief departures from the synchronized state observed in coupled chaotic systems were shown to display non-normal statistical distributions similar to events observed in the complex systems cited above. The current hypothesis accepted is that these desynchronization events are influenced by the presence of unstable object(s) in the phase space of the system. Here, we present further evidence that the occurrence of large events is triggered by the visitation of the system's phase-space trajectory to the vicinity of these unstable objects. In the system studied here, this visitation is controlled by a single parameter, and we exploit this feature to observe the effect of the visitation rate in the overall instability of the synchronized state. We find that the probability of escapes from the synchronized state and the size of those desynchronization events are enhanced in attractors whose shapes permit the chaotic trajectories to approach the region of strong instability. This result shows that the occurrence of large events requires not only a large local instability to amplify noise, or to amplify the effect of parameter mismatch between the coupled subsystems, but also that the trajectories of the system wander close to this local instability.