Resolving Contested Elections: The Limited Power of Post-Vote Vote-Choice Data
Adam N Glynn1, Thomas S Richardson2, Mark S Handcock2
1Department of Government and The Institute for Quantitative Social Sciences Harvard University, 1737 Cambridge Street, Cambridge, MA 02138.
Journal of the American Statistical Association
|December 8, 2015
Summary
Adjusting election results with voter testimony samples risks incorrect outcomes. Even accurate data may fail to detect fraud without precinct-level analysis or accepting higher error rates in U.S. election disputes.
Area of Science:
- Political Science
- Statistics
- Law
Background:
- Close election results are often contested by the losing side seeking evidence of inaccuracies.
- Courts sometimes use testimony from a sample of invalid voters to adjust vote totals.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze the impact of using sample data from invalid voters to adjust election totals.
- To evaluate the effectiveness of post-vote data in resolving U.S. election disputes.
Main Methods:
- Statistical analysis of sampling methods in election disputes.
- Examination of legal precedents involving vote adjustments based on sample data.
- Assessment of the power of voter testimony to detect incorrect election results.
Main Results:
- Adjusting vote totals using potentially unrepresentative samples can lead to incorrectly voided election results.
- Sampling difficulties and non-response limit the power of voter testimony to detect incorrect results.
- High-quality post-vote data is often insufficient to resolve disputes without acknowledged or unacknowledged modeling assumptions.
Conclusions:
- The practice of adjusting vote totals based on samples carries a significant risk of error in election disputes.
- Resolving contested U.S. elections often requires more than just post-vote data, necessitating careful consideration of sampling methodologies and statistical modeling.
- Courts must be cautious when using sample data to adjust election outcomes due to inherent statistical limitations.
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