Longitudinal phenotypes for alcoholism: Heterogeneity of course, early identifiers, and life course correlates

Alcoholism is a heterogeneous disorder; however, characterization of life-course variations in symptomatology is almost nonexistent, and developmentally early predictors of variations are very poorly characterized. In this study, the course of alcoholic symptomatology over 32 years is differentiated, and predictors and covariates of trajectory class membership are identified. A community sample of alcoholic and neighborhood matched control families, 332 men and 336 women, was recruited based on alcoholism in the men. Symptoms were assessed retrospectively at baseline (mean age = 32) back to age 15 and prospectively from baseline every 3 years for 15 years. Trajectory classes were established using growth mixture modeling. Men and women had very similarly shaped trajectory classes: developmentally limited (men: 29%, women: 42%), developmentally cumulative (men: 26%, women: 38%), young adult onset (men: 31%, women: 21%), and early onset severe (men: 13%). Three factors at age 15 predicted class membership: family history of alcoholism, age 15 symptoms, and level of childhood antisocial behavior. Numerous measures of drinking and other psychopathology were also associated with class membership. The findings suggest that clinical assessments can be crafted where the profile of current and historical information can predict not only severity of prognosis but also future moderation of symptoms and/or remission over intervals as long as decades.