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Exploring the Effects of Atmospheric Forcings on Evaporation: Experimental Integration of the Atmospheric Boundary Layer and Shallow Subsurface
Published on: June 8, 2015
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An observational radiative constraint on hydrologic cycle intensification
Anthony M DeAngelis1, Xin Qu1, Mark D Zelinka2
1Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California 90095, USA.
Nature
|December 15, 2015
Summary
Climate models overestimate precipitation increases due to inaccurate representation of solar absorption. Improving these models could reduce uncertainty in future precipitation predictions by 35%.
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Atmospheric Physics
- Hydrology
Background:
- The intensification of the hydrologic cycle is a critical aspect of climate change, significantly impacting both human societies and natural ecosystems.
- A key metric for hydrologic cycle intensification is the rise in global-mean precipitation relative to surface warming, showing a threefold variation across climate models (1-3% per Kelvin).
- Atmosphere-radiation interactions are a potential source of this model uncertainty.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the role of atmosphere-radiation interactions in the uncertainty of climate model predictions for hydrologic cycle intensification.
- To determine if models underestimate the sensitivity of solar absorption to atmospheric water vapor and its impact on precipitation projections.
Main Methods:
- Utilized an ensemble of climate models to analyze the relationship between solar absorption, atmospheric water vapor, and precipitation.
- Examined differences in radiative transfer parameterizations among models to understand their impact on model spread.
Main Results:
- Climate models tend to underestimate the increase in solar absorption due to atmospheric moistening, leading to an overestimation of precipitation increases.
- The sensitivity of solar absorption to water vapor varies significantly across models due to differing radiative transfer schemes, contributing substantially to model spread.
- Improvements in radiative transfer schemes could decrease the spread in predicted global precipitation increase by approximately 35%.
Conclusions:
- Accurate modeling of shortwave absorption is crucial for reducing uncertainty in climate change projections of precipitation.
- Enhancing radiative transfer schemes in climate models can lead to more reliable predictions of the hydrologic cycle's response to warming.
- The study highlights a key area for model improvement to better understand future global precipitation patterns.
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