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Modeling Resources Allocation in Attacker-Defender Games with "Warm Up" CSF.

Peiqiu Guan1, Jun Zhuang1

  • 1Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, SUNY at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY, USA.

Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
|December 30, 2015
PubMed
Summary

Investment warm-up effects significantly impact attacker-defender strategies. Ignoring these effects leads to higher defender damage and misallocated resources, especially in homeland security.

Keywords:
Attacker-defender gamescontest success functions (CSFs)game theorysubgame-perfect Nash equilibria (SPNE)“warm up” threshold

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Area of Science:

  • Operations Research
  • Game Theory
  • Homeland Security

Background:

  • Engineering investments require initial capital for system "warm-up."
  • Attacker and defender investments may be ineffective without this initial phase.
  • Existing models often overlook these "warm-up" effects.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze the impact of investment "warm-up" effects on attacker-defender equilibrium strategies.
  • To develop novel contest success functions incorporating "warm-up" dynamics.
  • To provide insights for homeland security resource allocation.

Main Methods:

  • Sequential-move game model development.
  • Analytical solutions for single-target games.
  • Numerical solutions for multiple-target scenarios.
  • Comparison of models with and without "warm-up" effects.

Main Results:

  • The defender suffers higher expected damage when "warm-up" effects are ignored.
  • Ignoring "warm-up" leads to underestimation of attacker effort or wasted defense investment.
  • Defender may strategically abandon defending all targets if "warm-up" thresholds are high.

Conclusions:

  • "Warm-up" effects are critical for realistic attacker-defender modeling.
  • Homeland security resource allocation must account for these dynamics.
  • Ignoring "warm-up" can lead to suboptimal defense strategies and increased vulnerability.