The interaction of perceived control and Gambler's fallacy in risky decision making: An fMRI study

Limited recent evidence implicates the anterior/posterior cingulate (ACC/PCC) and lateral prefrontal networks as the neural substrates of risky decision-making biases such as illusions of control (IoC) and gambler's fallacy (GF). However, investigation is lacking on the dynamic interactive effect of those biases during decision making. Employing a card-guessing game that independently manipulates trial-by-trial perceived control and gamble outcome among 29 healthy female participants, we observed both IoC- and GF-type behaviors, as well as an interactive effect of previous control and previous outcome, with GF-type behaviors only following computer-selected, but not self-selected, outcomes. Imaging results implicated the ACC and left dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) in agency processing, and the cerebellum and right DLPFC in previous outcome processing, in accordance with past literature. Critically, the right inferior parietal lobule (IPL) exhibited significant betting-related activities to the interaction of previous control and previous outcome, showing more positive signals to previous computer-selected winning versus losing outcomes but the reverse pattern following self-selected outcomes, as well as responding to the interactive effect of control and outcome during feedback. Associations were also found between participants' behavioral sensitivity to the interactive effect of previous control and previous outcome, and right IPL signals, as well as its functional connectivity with neural networks implicated in agency and previous outcome processing. We propose that the right IPL provides the neural substrate for the interaction of perceived control and GF, through coordinating activities in the anterior and posterior cingulate cortices and working conjunctively with lateral PFC and other parietal networks.