Negative outcomes evoke cyclic irrational decisions in Rock, Paper, Scissors

Area of Science:

• Behavioral Economics
• Game Theory
• Cognitive Psychology

Background:

• Rock, Paper, Scissors (RPS) offers a unique platform to compare predicted rational decision-making with actual human performance.
• Understanding deviations from rational choice is crucial in various fields.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate human decision-making strategies in RPS against a mixed-strategy equilibrium opponent.
• To identify systematic biases and vulnerabilities in player choices.

Main Methods:

• Participants played RPS against a computerized opponent programmed with a mixed-strategy equilibrium.
• Inter-trial analysis examined item selection changes following wins, losses, or draws.
• Repetition analysis identified patterns in consecutive choices.

Main Results:

• A non-significant tendency for participants to over-select Rock was observed.
• Participants were more likely to switch strategies after a loss or draw compared to a win.
• Specific 'downgrade' (loss) and 'upgrade' (draw) strategies were identified, alongside cyclic repetition patterns.

Conclusions:

• Human decision-making in RPS is vulnerable to negative outcomes, leading to predictable behavioral patterns.
• The study highlights the interplay between cognitive and behavioral influences on choice.
• Findings suggest potential predictability risks in non-cooperative environments like economics and politics.