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Predicting global variation in infectious disease severity: A bottom-up approach
Per M Jensen1, Henrik H De Fine Licht2
1Department of Plant and Environmental Sciences, University of Copenhagen, Frederiksberg, Denmark pmj@plen.ku.dk.
Evolution, Medicine, and Public Health
|February 18, 2016
Summary
Disease case-fatality ratios (CFR) vary due to host passage and demographic shifts. Birth rates predict mumps and malaria CFR, while death rates predict tuberculosis CFR, highlighting disease-specific demographic links.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Infectious Disease Dynamics
- Public Health
Background:
- Case-fatality ratios (CFR) vary globally, influenced by genetics, demography, transmission, and health.
- Serial passage through different host populations (e.g., adults vs. children) may alter disease virulence and CFR.
- Demographic transitions may correlate with observed changes in disease CFR.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the predictability of CFR for infectious diseases using demographic factors.
- To explore the relationship between population characteristics and disease-specific CFR.
- To test a predictive model using historical demographic and population data.
Main Methods:
- Utilized World Health Organization (WHO) disease databases for mumps, malaria, tuberculosis, and leptospirosis.
- Assessed associations between CFR and population characteristics (birth/death rates, median age, BMI, urbanization, vaccine coverage).
- Validated the predictive model using Danish historical demographic data.
Main Results:
- Birth rates were the strongest predictors for mumps and malaria CFR.
- Death rates were the best predictor for tuberculosis CFR.
- Population density significantly predicted leptospirosis CFR.
Conclusions:
- CFR predictors are disease-specific, influenced by individual disease biology.
- Observed patterns suggest an interplay between demographic change drivers and pathogen virulence in human-to-human transmitted diseases.
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