[Prognosis for insulin requirements in Czechoslovakia]

The submitted prognosis of insulin requirements in the CSR is based on the estimated number of type 1 diabetics and the estimated number of insulin treated type 2 diabetics. For the purpose of the prognosis these numbers are calculated for five-year age groups, separately for men and women. In the first approximation the authors assume that in the treatment of type 1 diabetics four typical therapeutic regimes are used which are consistent with conventional therapy and its intensified modification. In type 2 diabetics in the first approximation it is assumed that another four variants of therapeutic regimes will be mostly used which are typical for these patients. The sum of daily doses needed by all patients gives an estimate of the total requirements of the four basic types of insulin. This prognosis respects the basic factors which influence insulin requirements, whereby the basis is the development of the health status of the population. Comparison of different variants of the prognosis of requirements with the actual consumption makes it possible to formulate some conclusions for planning production and for evaluating the used and perspectively foreseen insulin therapy. From the results of the prognosis ensues that in 1995 the insulin consumption in the CSR will vary between 150 and 185% of the consumption in 1980.