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Temperature-driven global sea-level variability in the Common Era.

Robert E Kopp1, Andrew C Kemp2, Klaus Bittermann3

  • 1Department of Earth & Planetary Sciences, Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ 08854; Institute of Earth, Ocean & Atmospheric Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ 08901; Rutgers Energy Institute, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ 08901; robert.kopp@rutgers.edu.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
|February 24, 2016
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Global sea-level (GSL) changes over the Common Era reveal a significant acceleration in the 19th century. Without human-induced climate change, 20th-century GSL rise would have been substantially less.

Keywords:
Common Eraclimatelate Holoceneoceansea level

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Area of Science:

  • Paleoclimatology
  • Climate Science
  • Oceanography

Background:

  • Global sea-level (GSL) variability is a critical indicator of climate change.
  • Understanding long-term GSL trends provides context for current and future sea-level rise.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To statistically analyze the relationship between temperature and GSL over the Common Era.
  • To quantify the acceleration of GSL and its attribution to anthropogenic climate change.

Main Methods:

  • Meta-analysis of proxy relative sea-level reconstructions and tide-gauge data.
  • Statistical assessment of GSL variability and temperature correlations.
  • Development and calibration of a semiempirical model for GSL projections.

Main Results:

  • GSL rose at 0.1 ± 0.1 mm/y from 0-700 CE.
  • A GSL fall of 0.2 ± 0.2 mm/y during 1000-1400 CE correlated with global cooling.
  • 20th-century GSL rise was faster than in any of the preceding 27 centuries, with anthropogenic influence being a key driver.

Conclusions:

  • The 19th century marked the beginning of significant GSL acceleration.
  • Anthropogenic climate change is extremely likely responsible for a substantial portion of 20th-century GSL rise.
  • The developed semiempirical model reconciles previous GSL projection discrepancies.