[Comprehensive Risk Assessment of Soil Heavy Metals Based on Monte Carlo Simulation and Case Study]

Based on the stochastic. theory, the Monte Carlo simulation was introduced in ecological risk assessment and health risk assessment. Together with the multi-statistical technique, the proposed models were used for risk analysis in the Bin-Chang Coal Chemical industry park. The results showed that high levels of Cd, Co, and Cr were found in the area with long time mining. The comprehensive single index and comprehensive risk index showed that the ecological risk of soil metals fell into the poor level, with probabilities of 53.2% and 55.6%, respectively. The health risk caused by hand to mouth ingestion was significantly greater than that by dermal exposure, and Cr was of prime concern for pollution control. Children were taking a major health risk. Their non-cancer risks were maintained at a high level, and 5.0-fold higher than adults under hand to mouth ingestion, and 8.2-fold higher than adults under dermal exposure. The cancer risk for children under these two exposure ways were both above the safety standard suggested by USEPA.