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Bayesian analysis of psychology studies reveals that publication bias and small sample sizes often lead to overestimated effect sizes. Many studies lacked strong evidence, highlighting the need for larger samples and Bayesian methods.

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Area of Science:

  • Psychology
  • Reproducibility in Science
  • Bayesian Statistics

Background:

  • The Reproducibility Project: Psychology aimed to assess the replicability of psychological findings.
  • Publication bias and small sample sizes are suspected to inflate effect sizes in psychological literature.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To re-evaluate the results of the Reproducibility Project: Psychology using Bayesian methods.
  • To investigate the impact of publication bias on the evidence for original and replication studies.

Main Methods:

  • Computation of Bayes factors for 72 studies from the Reproducibility Project and their replications.
  • Inclusion of a correction for potential publication bias in the analysis.

Main Results:

  • 75% of studies showed qualitatively similar evidence, but often this evidence was weak (Bayes factor < 10).
  • 64% of studies provided weak evidence for either the null or alternative hypothesis.
  • Replication studies with larger sample sizes were more likely to yield strong evidence.

Conclusions:

  • The apparent lack of reproducibility in the original project can be attributed to overestimated effect sizes due to publication bias and small sample sizes.
  • Current sample sizes in psychological research are often insufficient.
  • Wider adoption of Bayesian methods and larger sample sizes are recommended for robust scientific conclusions.