Search research articles

ABOUT JoVE

Overview Leadership Blog JoVE Help Center

AUTHORS

Publishing Process Editorial Board Scope & Policies Peer Review FAQ Submit

LIBRARIANS

Testimonials Subscriptions Access Resources Library Advisory Board FAQ

RESEARCH

JoVE Journal Methods Collections JoVE Encyclopedia of Experiments Archive

EDUCATION

JoVE Core JoVE Business JoVE Science Education JoVE Lab Manual Faculty Resource Center Faculty Site

Terms & Conditions of Use

Search research articles

Related Experiment Video

Updated: Mar 24, 2026

Predicting the Effectiveness of Population Replacement Strategy Using Mathematical Modeling

Predicting the Effectiveness of Population Replacement Strategy Using Mathematical Modeling

Published on: July 4, 2007

Letter to the Editor: Probabilistic population forecasts for informed decision making.

Jakub Bijak¹, Isabel Alberts², Juha Alho³

¹University of Southampton.

Journal of Official Statistics

|March 8, 2016

Summary

Related Concept Videos

You might also read

Related Articles

Articles linked to this work by shared authors, journal, and citation graph.

Sort by

Same author

Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy Combined With Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors in Unresectable Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Comprehensive Single-Arm Meta-Analysis Approach.

American journal of clinical oncology·2026

Same author

Does neoadjuvant therapy reduce pancreatic fistula after pancreatoduodenectomy and distal pancreatectomy?-a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Hepatobiliary surgery and nutrition·2026

Same author

Global, regional, and national levels and trends in older child, adolescent, and youth (5-24 years) all cause mortality from 1990 to 2024: modelling study.

BMJ (Clinical research ed.)·2026

Same author

The Year in Electrophysiology: Selected Highlights From 2025.

Journal of cardiothoracic and vascular anesthesia·2026

Same author

Intense Pulsed Light Therapy for Post-LASIK Dry Eye: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Journal of ocular pharmacology and therapeutics : the official journal of the Association for Ocular Pharmacology and Therapeutics·2026

Same author

Bringing Age Back In: Accounting for Population Age Distribution in Forecasting Migration.

Demography·2026

Same journal

Relationship Between Past Survey Burden and Response Probability to a New Survey in a Probability-Based Online Panel.

Journal of official statistics·2025

Same journal

Probabilistic Projection of Subnational Life Expectancy.

Journal of official statistics·2024

Same journal

Reliable event rates for disease mapping.

Journal of official statistics·2024

Same journal

A User-Driven Method for Using Research Products to Empirically Assess Item Importance in National Surveys.

Journal of official statistics·2024

Same journal

Modeling the Relationship between Proxy Measures of Respondent Burden and Survey Response Rates in a Household Panel Survey.

Journal of official statistics·2024

Same journal

Variable inclusion strategies through directed acyclic graphs to adjust health surveys subject to selection bias for producing national estimates.

Journal of official statistics·2022

See all related articles

This summary is machine-generated.

Official population forecasts have uncertainty, but describing it is crucial for decision-making. This work highlights challenges and offers recommendations for improving the use of uncertainty assessments in demographic projections.

Area of Science:

Demography
Statistical Modeling
Population Studies

Background:

Demographic forecasts are essential for planning but inherently uncertain.
Methods for quantifying forecast uncertainty exist but are underutilized by official statistics practitioners.
Effective decision-making relies on understanding the uncertainty surrounding future population trends.

Purpose of the Study:

To revisit the arguments for using uncertainty assessments in official population forecasts.
To address the implications of uncertainty in demographic projections for decision-making.
To identify challenges and provide recommendations for the official statistics community.

Main Methods:

Review of existing methods for assessing demographic forecast uncertainty.

More Related Videos

Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework

Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework

Published on: July 24, 2016

Related Experiment Videos

Last Updated: Mar 24, 2026

Predicting the Effectiveness of Population Replacement Strategy Using Mathematical Modeling

Predicting the Effectiveness of Population Replacement Strategy Using Mathematical Modeling

Published on: July 4, 2007

Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework

Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework

Published on: July 24, 2016

Analysis of the practical applications and implications of uncertainty in population statistics.

Discussion of challenges faced by forecasters and users of demographic data.

Main Results:

The uptake of uncertainty assessment tools in official statistics lags behind their development.
Understanding forecast uncertainty is critical for informed policy and planning.
Challenges exist for both producers and users of demographic forecasts.

Conclusions:

Implementing uncertainty assessments in official population forecasts is vital for robust decision-making.
Addressing the identified challenges can improve the utility of demographic projections.
Recommendations are provided to foster greater adoption of uncertainty quantification in the statistical community.