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Error Rates, Decisive Outcomes and Publication Bias with Several Inferential Methods.
Will G Hopkins1, Alan M Batterham2
1Institute of Sport Exercise and Active Living, Victoria University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia. will@clear.net.nz.
Sports Medicine (Auckland, N.Z.)
|March 14, 2016
Summary
Magnitude-based inference (MBI) offers a reliable alternative to null-hypothesis significance testing (NHST) in sports science. MBI demonstrates superior performance in sample size, error rates, decision-making, and publication bias compared to NHST.
Area of Science:
- Sports Medicine and Science
- Statistical Inference
- Research Methodology
Background:
- Effective statistical methods require acceptable error rates for trivial (Type I) and substantial (Type II) true effects.
- Inferential statistics are crucial for determining the true magnitude of effects from sample data.
Purpose of the Study:
- To compare the error rates, decisive outcome rates, and publication bias of five common inferential methods in sports science.
- Evaluate conventional null-hypothesis significance testing (NHST), conservative NHST, non-clinical magnitude-based inference (MBI), clinical MBI, and odds-ratio clinical MBI.
Main Methods:
- Simulated 500,000 randomized controlled trials for standardized mean effects.
- Analyzed effects across a range of true magnitudes from null to moderately substantial.
- Utilized three sample sizes: suboptimal (20), optimal for MBI (100), and optimal for NHST (288).
Main Results:
- Non-clinical MBI consistently showed lower Type I error rates than NHST.
- NHST exhibited unacceptable Type II error or decisive outcome rates and significant publication bias with smaller sample sizes.
- MBI methods demonstrated no significant publication bias and generally better error rate control.
Conclusions:
- Magnitude-based inference (MBI) is a robust and nuanced alternative to NHST.
- MBI outperforms NHST regarding sample size efficiency, error rates, decision clarity, and publication bias.
- MBI provides a more trustworthy framework for interpreting research findings in sports science.
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